Radio W4KAZ

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Sunspots – Poised on the Cusp

Well, one way or other the next year will be interesting. The sunspot predictions will be tested against the actual data, and two competing sunspot models will have more data to use for future predictions. In another couple ofmillenniathey will have enough data to make their predictions with a confidence level higher than 50%.

The plotted progression data should soon start to diverge from one or both of the predictions. It’s a shame the data takes so long to collect, because it is a fascinating subject area. And right now, the data is taking even longer to collect than normal. Favoring the lower prediction maybe?

If the higher peak numbers are going to come, I’d expect the spots to start ramping up pretty soon, although we are still well within the averages for the lengths of a cycle. I wonder if there are any trends from the data following longer-than-normal minimums, or longer-than-normal cycles? Hmm.

As the kids would say, “Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”

“Be patient kiddo. It will only take a couple thousand years to get the data we need.”

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