Radio W4KAZ

Thanks for stopping by the virtual KazShack. Feel free to comment - I often approve them.

Any Time Now

Wazzap wit dat?

Reality sets in

2021_08_21_> Would be really nice to see solar flux improve, but sunspot numbers continue to be/trend mediocre.  Either the predicted time scale is going to be longer or the magnitudes of activity lower.  Maybe both?   Peak at ssn 60?  That would be sad.  The optimistic projections would be nice to see again, but I expect to be long dead before that happens.   SSN today at  25.  Based on today’s reality, it time to repair the 80m antenna and that 15m/10m project is deprecated.

2021_10 >> https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle

2021_12>> SSN Graphics, https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics

2021_12_26_> What a difference a few months make.  Too bad this didn’t show up in the week before the 10m contest.  Beginning to think there may be a bigger cycle than I would have ever expected.  A few more months of this would make the high bands worth experimenting.  Was expecting peaks well below 100ssn….hmmm.  From the helioforecast.space site, [current graphic link].

ssn graph, dec 2021

ssn graph, dec 2021….Didn’t ever expect to see ssn over 140 this cycle, or even much over 80.

and:

 

2022_01_04:  This last graph shows the current cycle is ahead of the modest predictions that I thought were over-optimistic.  The spike to 140+ SSN in mid December seems more like a much stronger cycle than the last, since the cycles usually ramp up quickly once they begin.  That will make fun high bands again, but given the wide range of predictions that missed, even the folks doing this full time might be scratching their heads.  Fun stuff.  Peaks above 200 ssn?  Hoooooweeeeee!  2023 might be the best radio condx I’ll ever live to see again.
link: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

2022_03_30: Well the SSN just keeps a-climbing.  Flux movin-on-up.  Curve in numbers is still much sooner, steeper, and stronger than anything I expected, and better than the middlin’ prediction that I thought would be a best case.   The last hurrah.  Sweeeeet.  Now I’m just hoping the polar flip and mini-nova catastrophe sorts are wrong. 🙂 🙂 🙂

Leave a Reply

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>